ChiSox seeking to get back on track at Mariners' expense

Baseball Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A subpar road trip has tightened things atop the American League Central for the first-place Chicago White Sox. A return home against a favorable opponent could help the club get back on track.

Chicago seeks a fifth consecutive victory at home over Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners in tonight's opener of a four-game set at U.S. Cellular Field.

The White Sox dropped a 6-4 decision to the Oakland Athletics on Sunday to wrap a 10-game, three-city road trip just 4-6. They lost three of four to Minnesota to begin the swing, then took two of three versus the Mariners prior to losing the rubber match to Oakland on Sunday.

Alex Rios and Alexei Ramirez each had two hits and an RBI in the loss, but starter Daniel Hudson gave up five runs on six hits and four walks over five innings to suffer the defeat.

"I thought we would have played a little bit better," White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It was a long road trip. Hopefully when we get home we get better."

Chicago's lead over second-place Minnesota fell to just one game, while third- place Detroit is two games off the pace.

The White Sox had won five in a row over the Mariners before losing the finale of their most recent meeting last Wednesday. They swept a three-game set at home over Seattle from April 23-25 and have won eight of the last nine at U.S. Cellular Field in the series.

Hernandez started Wednesday's game for the Mariners, but did not factor into the decision of his team's 2-1 victory in 11 innings despite eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball. The 24-year-old didn't walk a batter and struck out eight while pitching at least eight innings for the seventh time in eight starts.

"Felix did everything he could and everything we asked of him," said Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu.

The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.16 earned run average in his career versus the White Sox and 7-6 with a 2.75 ERA overall this season.

Chicago will counter Hernandez with John Danks, who will try to record a fourth consecutive winning start this evening. The left-hander extended his personal run last Tuesday versus Seattle, hurling 7 2/3 scoreless innings while working around two hits and four walks and striking out eight.

"It was good. I felt good," said Danks, who improved to 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA in his career versus the Mariners. "It was a good game. We scored some runs and as a staff were able to shut them out."

Danks, 25, won for the sixth time in his last eight starts and is 10-7 with a 3.37 ERA on the season. He'll try to prevent the Mariners from recording their first three-game winning streak since a season-best run of six consecutive victories from June 16-23.

After hitting a two-run homer in Saturday's victory over Boston, Michael Saunders' helped Seattle earn a split of the four-game set with a go-ahead two-run single in the eighth inning of Sunday's 4-2 triumph. Saunders' hit was one of six straight in the inning for the M's.

"These things add up over time and give him a belief system that he can play," Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu said of Saunders. "The more time he can play the better he is going to be. He's having good quality at bats."

Casey Kotchman added three hits and scored a run while pinch-hitter Milton Bradley provided a run-scoring bunt single in the 2,500th victory of Seattle's franchise history.

The milestone win, though, was just the Marines' sixth in their last 22 games overall.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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