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07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez's quest to become the youngest player in baseball history with 600 home runs takes him to St. Petersburg where the New York Yankees open a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
Rodriguez remained stuck at 599 on Thursday, but drove in three runs while both Derek Jeter and Curtis Granderson added two RBI in the Yankees' 11-4 win over Cleveland. Robinson Cano homered and Francisco Cervelli also drove in a run for the Yankees, who took three of four in the set at Progressive Field and have won 17 of 22 overall.
The Yankees enter this series with a two-game lead on the Rays in the American League East.
"We're playing good baseball, winning baseball," said Rodriguez, who will become the seventh player to reach the milestone. "The thing to remember is that when I hit (my 600th home run), nothing is going to change. We're just trying to play good baseball."
Rodriguez, who was 3-for-17 in the series with the Indians, should still easily become the youngest player to reach the milestone. Babe Ruth hit his 600th at age 36, while Rodriguez turned 35 on Tuesday.
Ruth may have reached the milestone quicker, hitting No. 600 in his 6,921st at-bat, but Rodriguez's pace (8,671 at-bats entering play Friday) trails only that of Barry Bonds (8,212) and eclipses Willie Mays (9,514) and Henry Aaron (10,009).
However, his 30 at-bats between home runs is the longest drought between homers 599 and 600 of the six other members in the club.
Taking the ball for New York in the opener tonight will be righty Phil Hughes, who has won two of his last three starts. Hughes improved to 12-3 on Sunday against Kansas City, as he allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings.
Hughes, though, has given up 15 runs in his four July starts and has seen his earned run average balloon to 4.04.
He is 2-1 in seven games (two starts) against the Rays with a 4.20 ERA.
Tampa, meanwhile, has won six in a row after a three-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers that culminated with a 4-2 win on Thursday. Carlos Pena went 3-for-4 with a home run and drove in all of Tampa Bay's runs, while David Price picked up his AL-best 14th victory after limiting the Tigers to two runs in 6 1/3 innings.
Price allowed seven hits, walked two and struck out nine for the Rays and matched the team record for victories in a season, shared by James Shields (2008), Edwin Jackson (2008) and Rolando Arrojo (1998).
"He's having a tremendous year," Rays third baseman Evan Longoria said. "He's pitched about as good as anybody has this year in the major leagues. He's been consistent for the most part all year. He's been a guy we can lean on when we need a stop or when we need a win. That's huge."
Tampa has won 19 of its 25 games since June 30 and is a season-best 25 games over .500. At the 100-game mark, the club is eight games ahead of last season and three ahead of its 2008 pace when it captured the American League pennant.
Going for Tampa tonight will be 25-year-old righty Wade Davis, who is 8-9 with a 4.32 ERA. Davis won his third straight start on Sunday in Cleveland, holding the Indians to a pair of runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.
Davis, who has given up one home run in three at-bats to A-Rod, beat the Yankees back on May 19 and is 1-2 in three starts against them with a 4.86 ERA.
These teams have split their eight matchups this season.
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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